Global trade rose in 2025, but uneven forces shaped growth across regions and sectors worldwide.
UNCTAD published its Global Trade Update (April 2026), titled “Global Trade Growth Continues, but Fragility Rises”, and highlighted this shift.
Manufacturing Drives Global Trade Growth
Manufacturing drove most expansion, as strong global demand boosted industrial goods significantly.
Factories increased output by about 11%, with electrical and non-electrical machinery leading growth.
UNCTAD identified manufacturing as the strongest driver of global trade growth in 2025.
Commodity Markets Remain Volatile
However, commodity markets showed mixed results because prices fluctuated sharply throughout the year.
Energy-related trade weakened, while some raw materials achieved only modest growth overall.
Meanwhile, agricultural trade performed better as global demand strengthened for key food products.
Cereals, animal products, coffee, tea, and spices all saw higher global trade activity.
In particular, rising coffee prices increased agricultural trade values, although momentum slowed later.
At the same time, natural resources trade declined because energy prices fell globally.
However, precious metals cushioned losses in base metals and supported parts of the sector.
UNCTAD warned that commodity price volatility shaped global trade patterns throughout 2025.
Outlook Turns Cautious For 2026
Looking ahead, the report projected slower global trade growth in 2026.
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Specifically, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and rising trade costs will slow momentum.
As a result, only a few sectors will sustain meaningful expansion in global trade.
Quarterly data showed global trade increased by about two percent overall.
Goods rose by 1.7%, while services grew faster at nearly three percent.
Consequently, services outperformed goods and shifted global trade dynamics further.
Nigeria Faces Trade Pressures
In Nigeria, however, trade performance weakened despite global growth.
Manufacturers exported fewer goods, and exports fell to ₦423.43 billion in Q4 2025.
This drop reflected a 14.32% year-on-year decline and a sharp quarterly fall of 56.73%.
Overall, Nigeria recorded ₦36.21 trillion in merchandise trade during Q4 2025.
However, this figure dropped from ₦39.77 trillion in the previous quarter.
Although Nigeria still recorded a surplus of ₦1.71 trillion, it shrank significantly.
The National Bureau of Statistics linked this decline to lower oil export volumes.
Crude oil remained Nigeria’s key export, but global price volatility continued to affect earnings.
Meanwhile, weak manufacturing, high production costs, and forex constraints reduced competitiveness.
Agriculture and services supported the economy, but they could not fully offset oil losses.
Ultimately, global trade expanded in 2025, yet fragility and uneven performance defined the year.
