Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast, predicting $60 per barrel in Q4 2026.
The bank released this revision in its latest commodities outlook on Sunday, surprising markets worldwide.
Brent And WTI Outlook
Consequently, it now expects Brent to average $64 per barrel in 2026, up from $56.
Similarly, it projects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $60, compared with its previous $52 estimate.
For the fourth quarter, Brent will reach $60, while WTI trades at $56 per barrel.
Global Market Dynamics
Goldman forecasts a 2.3 million barrels-per-day global oil surplus in 2026.
Small downgrades of 0.2 million barrels per day to supply and demand help offset this surplus.
Furthermore, lower inventories across OECD countries drive the upward revision.
The bank assumes that Iran will not cause major supply disruptions, keeping its base-case scenario.
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On Monday, oil prices fell about one per cent as the U.S. and Iran prepared nuclear talks.
Brent traded near $71 per barrel, while WTI stood at $65.75, as geopolitical tensions eased.
Nigeria’s Fiscal Alignment
Goldman factored in a $6 geopolitical risk premium that will unwind if tensions calm.
Rising OECD inventories will reduce crude fair value by $5.
The bank expects OPEC+ to gradually increase output in the second quarter of 2026.
Brent could drop $5 and WTI $8 if sanctions relief unlocks additional supply.
Markets remain volatile due to the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and slower growth in Asia.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget follows Goldman’s forecast, using $64 per barrel and 2.6 million barrels daily production.
For budgeting, officials apply a conservative 1.8 million barrels per day and ₦1,512/$ exchange rate.
Goldman’s revised outlook signals both risks and opportunities for global oil markets ahead.
