The Nigerian economy will rise again if the government continues to be dogged and implement meaningful reforms.
This is the view of many economic analysts.
In view of what the administration of President Bola Tinubu has done so far, the World Bank says the economy will grow by 3.7% in 2025.
It will be good if this Tinubu government will adopt the “no gree for anybody” slogan to achieve the goal of improving the economy.
The World has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will rise by 3.3%, up from a projected 2.9% in 2023.
This was contained in the World Bank’s most recent study, “Global Economic Prospect: Subdued Growth, Multiple Challenges”.
The report pegged, “Growth in Nigeria at 3.3% this year and 3.7% in 2025.
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According to the report, “The baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025″.
The momentum, according to the Washington-based bank, is due to the present macro-fiscal reforms being gradually implemented.
The Reforms
These reforms include the elimination of fuel subsidies and the harmonisation of foreign exchange rates.
The global bank stated that commerce, services, construction, and agriculture will propel the nation’s economic growth.
The 2023 State of Global Food and Nutrition Security report claims there has been a 133% increase in food insecurity among Nigerians. Sadly, this is happening in just three years.
Between 2020 and 2022, the number increased from 63.8 million in 2014 to 148.7 million in 2022.
“Inflation should gradually ease, as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and removal of fuel subsidies fade.
These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period,” the World Bank declared.
It admitted that the disruptive cashless and naira redesign policy caused the Nigerian economy to soften to an anticipated 2.9% in 2023.
“Growth in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola – slowed to an average of 1.8% last year, holding back the region’s overall growth.
“In the region’s other countries, growth softened to 3.9%, partly reflecting a sharp decline in metal exporters’ growth alongside lower global metal prices.
“Moreover, intense and prolonged conflicts hampered growth in several countries.
“More broadly, post-pandemic recoveries were slowed by weakening external demand and domestic policy tightening to address persistent inflation.”
GDP Growth Amidst Hardship
The National Bureau of Statistics estimates that Nigeria’s GDP grew at a rate of 2.54%. This growth pushed the GDP to ₦60.66 trillion as of Q3 of 2023.
According to the agency, the growth rate exceeded both the 2.51% growth in the second quarter of 2023 and the 2.25% growth noted in Q3 of 2022.
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Meanwhile, there are concerns that Nigeria’s growth rate may be jeopardised by factors like growing public debt, inflation, high living expenses, and a poor business environment.
In December 2023, the nation saw inflation reaching a 21-year high of 28.92%.
Data from the Debt Management Office show that in the third quarter of 2023, public debt increased to ₦87.91 trillion.
Tthis is according to the United Nations’ “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024” study.
It says that “with a high public debt load and a small domestic tax base in 2023, African nations’ fiscal positions would only get worse”.
One of the things affecting Nigeria’s revenue is pipeline vadalism. But there has been a push to arrest the situation, with security agencies doing their best.
In the video below, you will see how the Civil Defence Corps arrested vandals.
