Nigerian breakfast tables feel the impact again as global wheat prices rise in 2026.
In April 2026, markets pushed Hard Red Winter wheat to its highest price in nearly two years.
This key bread-making wheat now costs more because global supply pressures tighten availability.
US Wheat Supply Under Pressure
The United States leads production, yet severe drought now strains its wheat-growing regions.
Roughly 70% of US wheat fields suffer from dry weather conditions this season.
Only 30% of winter wheat shows good or excellent condition, according to reports.
Farmers also reduce wheat planting to the lowest level since 1919.
Instead, many farmers switch land to soybeans and corn for better profits.
As a result, drought and reduced planting cut expected global wheat supply sharply.
Consequently, US wheat prices rise quickly and reach strong weekly gains in futures markets.
Global Trade And Cost Pressures
Meanwhile, global tensions also push costs higher across shipping and fertiliser supply chains.
For example, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz raise insurance and transport costs.
In addition, fertiliser shortages increase production expenses for wheat farmers worldwide.
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Together, these factors create a “perfect storm” that drives wheat prices upward globally.
Impact On Nigeria’s Food Market
As a result, Nigeria feels strong pressure because it relies heavily on imported wheat.
The country plans to import a record 7.2 million tonnes of wheat this year.
Furthermore, Nigeria ranks among the largest buyers of US wheat globally.
In 2025, US exporters sold wheat worth about 465 million dollars to Nigeria.
However, Nigeria produces less than 5% of its wheat demand locally.
Therefore, the country depends heavily on international markets for its bread supply.
When US prices rise, Nigerian millers quickly face higher flour costs.
In response, some millers turn to Australia or Black Sea wheat for alternatives.
However, those regions also struggle with weather-related production challenges.
At the same time, the European Union supplies cheaper wheat to Nigeria.
For instance, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland export wheat for blending use.
Still, rising global prices increase total import costs for Nigerian millers.
As costs rise, bakeries feel pressure from expensive flour and higher production expenses.
Consequently, some bakeries increase bread prices to stay in business.
Meanwhile, others reduce loaf sizes but keep prices unchanged.
As a result, consumers notice either higher prices or smaller portions.
Ultimately, drought and trade disruptions drive higher food costs in Nigeria.