Nigeria’s inflation story in April 2026 shows a fragile recovery facing renewed pressure.
The Financial Market Dealers Association forecasts headline inflation at 16.42% year-on-year in April.
The projection draws on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank and FAO.
It reflects continued pressure from food, fuel and global commodity prices.
Inflation Outlook
Month-on-month inflation is projected at 2.78% in April, down from 4.18% in March.
The FMDA says this offers only temporary relief and not a clear turning point.
Inflation peaked at 27.35% in March 2025.
It later fell to 15.06% in February 2026 but has since risen again to 15.38% in March 2026.
Fuel And Food Pressure
Fuel and food remain the main drivers.
Petrol rose to ₦1,322.50 in April from ₦1,208.38 in March, a 9.44% increase that pushed up transport and production costs.
The food index also rose to 3.69 in April from 3.60 in March.
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Yam recorded the highest increase at 3.98%.
Maize, millet and sorghum also increased, while rice fell slightly by 0.13%.
Global And Policy Factors
The naira strengthened to ₦1,361.22/$ in April from ₦1,379.98 in March, offering limited relief on import costs.
Globally, Brent crude rose to $120.4 per barrel from $103.7 in March.
FAO food prices rose for a third consecutive month, while wheat and maize also increased.
About 72% of countries recorded higher inflation.
The Central Bank of Nigeria continues tight monetary policy to stabilise prices.
Earlier tightening helped reduce inflation in 2025, but recent shocks are reversing some gains.
FMDA says the rise is cost driven rather than policy failure, with global oil and food prices remaining the key risks ahead.
