Oil exports set the tone for Nigeria’s external finances in 2025, but cracks soon appeared.
The Central Bank of Nigeria reported that Nigeria earned $31.54 billion from crude oil exports.
Thus, oil remained Nigeria’s main source of foreign exchange and export earnings.
Falling Oil Earnings
However, earnings fell from $36.85 billion recorded in 2024.
Despite this, expectations for stronger performance still shaped the outlook for the year.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that production increased in 2025.
Specifically, crude oil output rose to 530.41 million barrels from 408.68 million barrels.
Yet, Nigeria still missed its production targets for the year.
In total, output reached 599.64 million barrels, below the 766.5 million barrel target.
At the same time, Nigeria missed its OPEC quota in most months.
Operational issues and outages also limited full production capacity.
As a result, higher output did not translate into higher export earnings.
Shifting Export Mix
Meanwhile, the Central Bank recorded a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025.
However, this figure remained lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024.
The central bank linked this decline mainly to weaker crude oil earnings.
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Elsewhere, the energy sector showed signs of gradual improvement.
For instance, total oil, gas, and refined exports rose to $48.17 billion.
In addition, gas exports grew strongly and reached $10.51 billion during the year.
Similarly, refined petroleum exports increased to $6.13 billion.
This trend reflects Nigeria’s growing domestic refining activity.
Notably, the Dangote Refinery drove much of this shift.
It now helps Nigeria export more value-added petroleum products.
At the same time, fuel imports declined to $10.00 billion from $14.06 billion.
This drop suggests Nigeria reduced its reliance on imported refined fuel.
However, Nigeria still imported $3.74 billion worth of crude oil during the year.
The country used these imports mainly as feedstock for domestic refining.
Rising External Pressures
Beyond oil, pressure from the wider external sector remained significant.
For example, non-oil imports rose to $29.24 billion, showing strong demand for foreign goods.
In addition, net outflows in the services account increased to $14.58 billion.
Higher spending on travel, transport, and insurance drove this rise.
Moreover, primary income outflows rose sharply to $9.09 billion.
Higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors caused this increase.
Despite these pressures, the goods account remained strong and posted a $14.51 billion surplus.
Overall, Nigeria recorded a balance of payments surplus of $4.23 billion.
However, this figure fell from $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.
Even so, external reserves rose to $45.75 billion and supported economic stability.
In the end, Nigeria’s economy showed resilience, yet structural challenges still shaped its 2025 performance.
