Goldman Sachs trimmed its oil outlook after a ceasefire shifted market expectations.
First, a brief calm returned to global oil markets, yet risks continue to shape sentiment.
Next, the bank now sees Brent at $90 per barrel and WTI at $87 for Q2 2026.
Ceasefire Eases Pressure
Previously, it projected higher prices at $99 for Brent and $91 for WTI.
As a result, this shift reflects a lower risk premium as geopolitical tensions ease.
Meanwhile, markets are reassessing supply risks, especially around the Strait of Hormuz.
Importantly, this key route continues to anchor global oil trade and pricing dynamics.
Goldman Market Reactions And volatility
Consequently, Brent dropped over 11% this week on improved supply expectations.
However, prices rebounded as traders questioned the ceasefire’s durability.
At the same time, traders remain cautious about how quickly Middle East supply can recover.
In contrast, Goldman Sachs kept its longer-term forecasts unchanged across later quarters.
Specifically, it expects Brent at $82 in Q3 and $80 in Q4.
Similarly, it projects WTI at $77 in Q3 and $75 in Q4.
Read Also: Jet Fuel Shortages To Persist For Months Despite Hormuz Reopening
Outlook And Upside Risks
Therefore, risks still tilt to the upside due to possible supply disruptions.
For example, if production losses reach 2 million barrels per day, prices could surge.
In that scenario, Brent could average $115 in the fourth quarter.
Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence global oil market stability.
Even small disruptions there can quickly affect international supply chains.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs lowered its European gas forecast in response to easing tensions.
It cut its TTF price outlook to 50 euros per megawatt-hour.
This assumes LNG flows normalise through key routes by mid-April.
However, if flows delay, prices could rise above 75 euros per megawatt-hour.
Overall, energy markets remain closely linked across oil and gas segments.
Earlier, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil forecast to $85 per barrel.
Notably, this remains above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
Previously, it projected Brent averaging $60 in late 2026.
That outlook reflected tightening inventories and shifting global dynamics.
Finally, markets now balance short-term relief with longer-term uncertainty.
Ultimately, the next direction depends on geopolitics, supply, and market confidence.
