Nigeria’s oil sector is slowly recovering, and experts expect production to rise modestly in 2026.
According to BMI, total liquid hydrocarbons will average 1.73 million b/d next year, surpassing the country’s OPEC quota of 1.50 million b/d.
Oil Production Recovery
After a turbulent 2025, infrastructure upgrades and increased output from small fields are supporting this recovery.
However, Nigeria missed its OPEC production target for the third consecutive month in October 2025.
Specifically, crude output climbed slightly to 1.401 million b/d in October, only just above September’s 1.39 million b/d.
Furthermore, quarterly figures show production declining from 1.481 million b/d in Q2 to 1.444 million b/d in Q3.
Despite government intervention, fresh investment, and enhanced security measures, Nigeria continues to struggle to restore full oil production.
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Infrastructure And Refinery Boost
BMI highlights that midstream upgrades, debottlenecking, and small field output will drive growth next year.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has reduced Nigeria’s fuel imports, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and eased inflationary pressures.
Nevertheless, operational delays could push imports higher, worsen inflation, and dampen Nigeria’s overall economic growth prospects.
Security And Global Risks
Moreover, rising insecurity threatens agriculture and oil production, deterring investors and straining government resources.
On the international stage, worsening U.S. relations could trigger tariffs, sanctions, or restrictions on Nigeria’s oil exports.
In October, NNPC reported that crude output fell to 1.58 million b/d from 1.61 million b/d in September.
At the same time, gas production rose to 6,997 mmscf/d, and gas sales jumped to 4,713 mmscf/d, showing resilience in the sector.
Looking ahead, Nigeria can cautiously hope for recovery, as infrastructure upgrades, refinery capacity, and small fields continue to support growth.
However, security threats, geopolitical tensions, and operational hurdles remain challenges that the government must address to sustain progress.
