Nigeria is preparing to make a case for a higher oil production quota from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as the country’s crude output shows signs of recovery after years of decline.
Recent improvements in security and investment have enabled the country to focus on increasing its output to meet economic targets before formally approaching OPEC for a quota review.
Chief executive of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, stated that the country aims to first meet its budgetary production targets before engaging OPEC for a quota review.
By December 2024, Nigeria’s crude production had risen to 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), close to its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, marking a recovery from a low of 1.1 million bpd in 2022.
Production had been severely impacted by widespread theft and vandalism, particularly affecting key infrastructure such as the Trans-Niger Pipeline, which was illegally tapped at over 150 locations.
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In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) introduced measures including real-time monitoring and community engagement to protect pipelines.
The government is now targeting 2 million bpd, the highest in a decade, supported by increased investments from domestic firms such as Seplat Energy and Oando.
However, maintaining security remains a challenge.
Nigeria’s push for a higher OPEC quota may face resistance, as the cartel seeks to control production to stabilise global prices.
Analysts suggest the country’s fiscal challenges could drive it to prioritise revenue growth over compliance with OPEC limits.
The coming months will be critical as Nigeria works to balance economic needs with OPEC’s regulations.
