Government debt has become a critical factor in Nigeria’s economic future, with the government’s actions set to determine the fate of the naira, according to the CEO of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo.
CEO of The CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, warns that poor policy execution has left Nigeria in a “quagmire of reform fatigue,” marked by inflation, reduced purchasing power, and soaring debt.
In his 2025 economic forecast, From Reform Fatigue Quagmire to Sustainable Growth, he emphasised that mismanagement of debt, oil production, and asset sales could push the naira beyond ₦2,000/$, further destabilising the economy.
The government launched an ambitious 18-month reform programme to drive sustainable growth.
However, poor implementation and misaligned priorities have left the economy stuck in stagflation.
As a result, households are reeling from reduced purchasing power.
Adebajo called the situation a “quagmire of reform fatigue,” criticising policies that devalued the naira from ₦450/$ to ₦1,700/$ while inflation surged due to fuel subsidy removal.
Meanwhile, social intervention programmes failed to protect vulnerable citizens, leaving many unsupported.
Rising Debt And Stagflation Threaten Nigeria’s Economy
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In addition, the government has allowed Nigeria’s debt burden to exceed $100 billion, with debt servicing costs doubling to ₦16.3 trillion in the 2025 budget.
These repayments now dwarf spending on defence, infrastructure, health, and education.
Compounding the issue, Nigeria’s GDP has fallen to $195 billion, a $300 billion loss over the last decade, which has caused the nation to drop from Africa’s largest economy to fourth place.
To address these challenges, Adebajo urged the government to sell oil assets, raising $30–$50 billion to reduce debt, stabilise the naira, and attract investment.
He also stressed the importance of controlling inflation and implementing growth-friendly policies.
Looking ahead, Adebajo warned that Nigeria’s recovery depends on bold, decisive action.
“The government’s sincerity and competence will determine whether the nation thrives or sinks deeper into despair,” he concluded.
