Nigeria stands at a crossroads as it chases a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The World Bank, in its latest Nigeria Development Update, acknowledges the country’s recent economic strides but warns they won’t be enough.
To stay on course, Nigeria must shift from modest gains to transformative growth—fuelled by robust reforms and private sector dynamism, the bank says.
The message is clear: the foundation is laid, but the real work lies ahead.
Reforms Not Enough
During the launch of the May 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU), the World Bank recognised that Nigerian authorities have implemented key macroeconomic reforms.
However, it stressed that these steps alone could not guarantee sustained progress.
“Macroeconomic reforms are necessary but insufficient on their own to achieve fast, sustained, and inclusive growth,” said the Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria, Alex Sienaert.
Strong But Slowing Growth
In Q4 2024, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.84%—its strongest recovery in three years—thanks largely to growth in the services sector.
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Over the full year, GDP climbed to 3.4%, up from 2.74% in 2023, marking the country’s fastest non-COVID growth since 2015.
Global Risks Cloud Outlook
However, rising global trade tensions and falling oil output continue to pressure the economy.
Although the World Bank expects growth to edge up to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.8% by 2027, the International Monetary Fund paints a grimmer picture.
It recently slashed Nigeria’s 2025 forecast to 3.0%, down from 3.4%, citing mounting risks.
Call For Bold Action
Meanwhile, Nigeria has set an ambitious growth target of 4.6% in its 2025 budget—well above both forecasts.
To narrow this gap, the World Bank recommends that the government maintain sound macroeconomic policies and actively attract large-scale private investment.
Additionally, it urges leaders to prioritise competition reforms and improve infrastructure.
Without urgent, coordinated action, Nigeria may fall short of its $1 trillion ambition.
