From the trading floors of Lagos to the oil rigs offshore, signs of recovery are emerging in Nigeria’s fragile economy.
A new estimate by Stanbic IBTC pegs first-half 2025 growth at 3.7%, powered by improved oil production and resilient private sector activity.
Drawing from crude oil data by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the report highlighted renewed momentum in manufacturing and services.
Reforms Begin To Pay Off
Following sweeping reforms that triggered a severe cost-of-living crisis, Nigeria has begun to stabilise.
Though the transition proved painful, the reforms have started to deliver results, with inflation easing and business confidence improving.
Agriculture Faces Persistent Setbacks
Meanwhile, the agricultural sector continues to struggle.
Armed groups have disrupted farming in key regions, and erratic weather has compounded the sector’s challenges.
Nigeria’s Economy Boosted By Oil Output
As inflation slows, the Central Bank is likely to shift its monetary stance.
After aggressively raising interest rates to a record 27.5%, policymakers may begin easing.
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“We expect a 150–200 basis points rate cut in 2025 and 200–250 in 2026,” said Head of Equity Research (West Africa) at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni.
Medium-Term Outlook Improves
He noted that structural reforms, reduced protectionism, and easing reform shocks will likely support medium-term growth.
Faster Growth On The horizon
In 2024, Nigeria posted its fastest economic growth in a decade at 3.4%, led by the services sector.
Looking ahead, the World Bank expects the economy to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and reach 3.8% by 2027.
Rebasing Could Lift GDP To 4.2%
Stanbic IBTC projects real growth of 3.5% this year.
However, with an anticipated GDP rebasing, annual growth could climb to 4.2%, signalling renewed economic potential.