Many people had expected the price of petrol to crash down after the Nigerian National Petroleum Company’s (NNPC) decision to terminate its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery.

Dangote Refinery: Possible Price Of Petrol Across States In Nigeria After NNPC’s Reign Of Monopoly

However, a review of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) pricing framework, obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicates that the reverse may be the case.

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This cloud of uncertainty and doubt hovering above the country has already left many Nigerians bracing for an imminent increase in petrol prices.

As the fallout from this significant policy shift unfolds, a new pricing data surfaced.

Possible Prices Of Petrol Across Nigeria

According to that data, the retail cost of petrol across the country is expected to climb to ₦991.21 per litre, up from the current ₦897/litre.

This increase will have severe consequences, in fact, as we speak, consumers in major cities have prepared to increase the price of petrol.

According to the data, petrol prices will vary significantly depending on location.

In Abuja, petrol could soar as high as ₦1,029.01 per litre, while Lagos residents may pay ₦991.21.

Other cities are also expected to experience sharp increases.

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Nigerians may purchase petrol at ₦1,040.31 in Kano, ₦1,007.35 in Calabar, ₦1,045.72 in Sokoto, and ₦1,059.39 in Maiduguri.

Additionally, petrol in Ibadan may increase to ₦999.27, and in Enugu, it could rise to ₦1,022.63.

The End Of Monopoly

Prior to this time, many people had fingered the monopoly of NNPC over the product as the major reason for the high cost of petrol, hence the call for the end of the deal.

Days ago, the NNPC announced its decision to end its exclusive agreement with Dangote Refinery, allowing independent marketers to negotiate prices directly with the Refinery.

Sadly, what many people did not know was that the NNPC was subsidizing petrol by an average of ₦134.5 per litre across the eight cities.

This is detailed in the recent PMS data, which reflects trading averages from September 23 to October 4, 2024.

Petrol Subsidy

NMDPRA’s documentation highlights the subsidy payment differentials previously covered by NNPC, illustrating the potential impact on consumers as these subsidies are withdrawn.

Also Read: Nigerians Rejoice As NNPC’s Dangote Refinery Petrol Monopoly Dies

In all the cities the document referred to, the average NAFEM FX rate used to calculate the pump price was ₦1,604.89/USD.

In Lagos State, the indicative pump price is ₦991.21, while the actual NNPC pump price is ₦855 per litre.

This indicates that NNPC pays about ₦136.21 as its estimated differential price.

In Abuja, the indicative pump price is ₦1,029.01 while the actual pump price is ₦897 per litre, meaning that the NNPC pays about ₦132.01 as an estimated differential.

For Kano, the indicative pump price is ₦1,040.31 per litre, while the actual pump price is ₦904, indicating an estimated differential price of ₦136.31.

In Calabar, the indicative pump price is ₦1,007.35; the actual pump price is ₦885 per litre, and the estimated differential price is ₦122.35.

Meanwhile, in Sokoto, the indicative pump price is ₦1,045.72 per litre, while the actual pump price is ₦904, indicating an estimated differential of ₦141.72.

In Maiduguri, the indicative pump price is ₦1,059.39, while the actual pump price is ₦924, indicating an estimated differential of ₦135.39.

In Ibadan, the indicative pump price is ₦999.27 per litre while the actual pump price is ₦865, and the estimated differential price is ₦134.27.

Enugu’s indicative pump price is ₦1,022.63, the actual pump price is ₦885 per litre, and the estimated differential price is ₦137.63.

On Monday, a source revealed that the pump price may even be higher than estimated, depending on crude oil prices and prevailing foreign exchange rates.

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