Nigeria’s non-oil export figures look impressive at first glance.
However, the story behind the numbers remains more complex.
Nigeria earned a record ₦9.2 trillion from non-oil exports in the first nine months of 2025.
This represents a 48% increase from ₦6.2 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.
Currency-Driven Surge
The National Bureau of Statistics reported the data in its Foreign Trade in Goods release.
Initially, the rise suggests progress in export diversification. Yet currency effects explain much of the growth.
The shift began after authorities devalued the naira in mid-2023.
Since then, export earnings measured in naira have climbed sharply.
In many cases, export volumes have not risen at the same pace.
As a result, the weaker naira inflated export values and improved Nigeria’s price competitiveness abroad.
In the whole of 2023, non-oil exports totalled only ₦3.1 trillion.
By contrast, the first nine months of 2025 nearly tripled that figure.
Non-Oil Exports Monthly Repricing Effect
Momentum strengthened in the third quarter of 2025.
Nigeria recorded ₦2.996 trillion in non-oil exports during the period, compared with ₦2.5 trillion in Q3 2024.
Two years earlier, exporters generated just ₦683 billion.
Meanwhile, monthly data shows how sharply prices adjusted.
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Exports reached ₦1.23 trillion in July 2025, before easing to ₦880 billion in August and ₦890 billion in September.
Consequently, Nigeria now earns close to ₦1 trillion each month from non-oil exports.
Under the previous exchange rate regime, such levels remained largely unattainable.
Despite this progress, non-oil exports still play a limited role overall.
They contributed only 12–14% of total monthly exports in Q3 2025.
Crude oil, refined fuels and gas continued to dominate export earnings.
Therefore, Nigeria remains exposed to swings in global oil prices.
Structural Limits Persist
Moreover, the composition of non-oil exports highlights structural constraints.
Growth remains concentrated in capital-intensive and energy-linked sectors.
In Q3 2025, chemical and allied products generated ₦845 billion.
Prepared food, beverages, spirits and tobacco contributed ₦692 billion.
Vehicles, aircraft and related equipment added ₦550.8 billion, while vegetable products delivered ₦214.5 billion.
By export category, agriculture earned ₦786.6 billion.
Raw materials contributed ₦1.0 trillion, while solid minerals generated only ₦100.8 billion.
Manufacturers exported ₦2.0 trillion worth of goods during the quarter.
However, energy-related manufactured exports reached just ₦91 billion.
At the same time, Nigeria imported ₦4.75 trillion worth of manufactured goods.
This amount exceeded manufactured exports by more than double.
As a result, exports remain concentrated in fertilisers, petrochemicals and heavy industrial products.
Light manufacturing and consumer goods continue to play a minor role.
Overall, exporters have responded quickly to stronger price incentives.
Nigeria has shown it can earn trillion-naira export revenues outside oil.
Still, true structural diversification remains unfinished.
