Cocoa prices rose in early December and climbed from $5,510 to above $6,200 per tonne.
After six months of losses, the market finally showed fresh momentum.
Therefore, many traders now expect a possible shift in direction.
Cocoa Tight Supply Outlook
On November 28, the ICCO cut its 2024/25 surplus estimate to 49,000 tonnes.
It reduced the earlier forecast of 142,000 tonnes and surprised the market.
The organisation also lowered expected production to 4.69 million tonnes.
Earlier, better weather in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire increased oversupply concerns.
Consequently, traders feared heavier pressure on prices later in 2025.
However, new data from Côte d’Ivoire shows a mixed supply picture.
Farmers shipped 804,288 tonnes between October 1 and December 7.
This figure sits 1.8% lower than last year’s level.
Shifting Harvest Conditions
Exports may rise in January 2026, as new beans move into ports.
Light rainfall supported pod growth before the dry Harmattan season.
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As a result, farmers expect the main crop to last into early 2026.
“There is a lot of cocoa on the trees,” said farmer Salame Kone.
He believes strong harvest levels will continue next year.
Last season created very different challenges.
Heavy rain slowed harvesting, delayed drying, and blocked transport routes.
Thus, prices surged sharply through 2024.
Volatile 2025 Price Path
Cocoa started 2025 at $10,950, but prices fell quickly after that.
They slipped below $8,000 after the first quarter and reached $7,888.
Then, a brief second-quarter rebound lifted prices more than 16%.
Nevertheless, the recovery faded by June and declines returned.
By September, cocoa fell below $7,500, marking steep losses.
In October, prices dropped over 8% to $6,151.
In November, further weakness pushed cocoa down to $5,403.
Now, December shows a different tone.
By December 11, 2025, cocoa climbed back above $6,200.
Even so, the commodity remains 49.5% lower this year.
