Nearly a year after Nigeria launched its cash transfer scheme, the government has struggled to reach most of the intended beneficiaries.
PwC’s latest mid-year outlook shows that the programme has covered only one-third of the 15 million targeted households.
Impact Of Economic Reforms
The government introduced the initiative in October 2023 to offset the impact of its reforms.
First, President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies and floated the naira to stabilise the economy and attract investment.
However, these measures quickly drove living costs higher.
Inflation surged to record levels, and the naira lost about 70% of its value, leaving households with weaker purchasing power.
Nigerian Households Awaiting Transfers
So far, distribution has progressed slowly.
PwC notes that 21% of the target group have received at least one payment, while 16% managed to receive two transfers, and only 8% secured three after biometric verification.
To address these gaps, the government launched a nationwide campaign in April.
It required at least one adult in every eligible household to register with a National Identification Number (NIN) or Bank Verification Number (BVN) before receiving support.
Moreover, PwC explains that wider NIN registration, particularly in rural areas, could allow the government to expand coverage and deliver funds to the poorest families more effectively.
Prospects And Challenges Ahead
Looking ahead, PwC forecasts some relief for households in 2025.
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Real spending will likely climb to ₦25.7 trillion—the highest in three years—after consecutive declines in 2023 and 2024.
This rebound rests on moderating inflation, which may drop to 21.46% next year.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria could start lowering interest rates in the second half of 2025 if inflation continues to slow.
Ongoing CBN reforms and stronger portfolio inflows should help the naira remain broadly stable.
However, PwC warns that persistent price pressures, high borrowing costs, and limited fiscal space could hold back the pace of recovery.
For instance, nominal household spending has surged—rising 33% from ₦142.6 trillion in 2023 to an expected ₦237 trillion in 2024—but higher food prices, transport costs, and essentials primarily fuelled that growth rather than stronger purchasing power.
On the wider economy, PwC projects modest GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, slightly above 2024’s 3.38%.
Stronger oil production and gains in finance, construction, ICT, and real estate will likely drive this expansion.
In the end, the government continues to view the cash transfer scheme as a crucial tool for protecting its most vulnerable citizens.
Yet the slow pace of implementation shows a clear gap between policy ambitions and everyday realities.
