The numbers tell a worrying story: crude prices are sliding, the market is drowning in supply, and for Nigeria, the consequences could hit hard.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that next year the world will face a record oil surplus.
Demand keeps losing steam while producers relentlessly open the taps.
By 2026, global stockpiles will swell by nearly 3 million barrels a day — a bigger glut than even the COVID crash of 2020.
OPEC+ Turns Up The Taps
Meanwhile, OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has accelerated the return of idled production.
Outside the cartel, the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil keep pumping more, prompting the IEA to raise its supply forecast.
“Oil-market balances look ever more bloated,” the agency says.
So far this year, prices have fallen 12% and now hover near $66 a barrel in London.
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Cheaper fuel rewards drivers and hands US President Donald Trump a political win, but it threatens the budgets of oil-dependent economies.
Nigeria, whose government relies heavily on crude sales, could suffer the most.
Nigeria’s Fiscal Cliff
In June, inventories reached a 46-month high, and only major geopolitical shocks — like fresh sanctions on Russia or Iran — could change the outlook.
Demand growth has already slowed to its weakest pace since 2019 and will slip further in 2026.
Looking ahead, the IEA projects that oil demand will peak before 2030 as electric vehicles and clean energy reshape global consumption.
Yet for now, the race for market share shows no signs of easing.
OPEC+ just completed the restart of 2.2 million barrels a day of production, and members now weigh whether to keep pushing, pause, or reverse course.
For Nigeria, that decision could draw the line between a tough year and a full-blown fiscal crisis.
